NVIDIA is up again. And what's most intriguing this time is the extremely awkward timing of the rise. Just before, Jensen Huang had refused to attend the U.S. Congress hearing and was publicly named by a senator; right after, on June 8, NVIDIA's stock price rebounded strongly, closing up nearly 1.8%.
This market seems abnormal, but it hides the most crucial truth of this round of AI market trends.
Many are puzzled: Being targeted by Congress, shouldn't it fall? Doesn't Jensen Huang's absence from the hearing mean increased regulatory pressure? Why did the stock price rise instead of fall, and rebound strongly?
This is the core to deeply analyze today: The key to this round of NVIDIA rebound has never been "whether Jensen Huang goes to the hearing or not," but that Wall Street declares with real money: The AI market trend is not dead; capital has just shaken off fear and returned to the industry mainline.
The hearing is a secondary issue, regulatory risk is market background noise. The real mainline logic remains unchanged: AI demand is still strong, the chip supply chain is stable, and NVIDIA's industry leadership has not been shaken.
This sentence is crucial.
Most retail investors watch the market and are easily led by news headlines. As soon as they see "Jensen Huang Refuses Hearing," they immediately think it's bearish, sound the alarm, and believe regulation is coming and NVIDIA's momentum is cooling.
But Wall Street's judgment logic is completely different. The market doesn't care how scary the news is; it only looks at three things: Will this news immediately affect orders? Will it directly impact profits? Will it cause cloud vendors to stop purchasing GPUs?
As long as the answer is "not for now," short-term capital will decisively flow back.
Therefore, the real signal sent by the rebound K-line on June 8 is not "regulatory risk is resolved" but: The market has temporarily confirmed that regulatory noise cannot overwhelm the true AI fundamentals.
1. Restoring the Full Picture: Regulation is a Gray Rhino, Not a Sudden Black Swan
The origin of this wave of turmoil is that U.S. Senator Warren invited Jensen Huang to attend the public hearing "AI and the American Dream" on June 11. Jensen Huang did not accept the invitation and was subsequently publicly criticized and questioned by the senator.
Congress, AI industry, China market, export controls, national security — when these keywords appear together, retail investors can easily panic. But the truth is: NVIDIA being under regulatory scrutiny is not new news.
In the past few years, U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips have been continuously escalating. NVIDIA does not make ordinary consumer chips; it makes the core computing engine of the AI era, which can be used for large model training, data center construction, and cloud computing, and is highly strategic.
Such a leading company is inevitably subject to continuous attention from U.S. authorities.
The key reason the market wasn't crushed by the bad news is: This is a "gray rhino risk" that everyone had already anticipated, not a sudden black swan.
Regulatory risk has always existed; it's just that this time it's back on the table. And the stock price rose against the trend, indicating that capital cares more about the core question: Has the real demand for AI been interrupted?
The answer is very clear now: No.
Microsoft continues to pour money into expanding AI data centers, Amazon expands AI cloud computing power, Google accelerates AI infrastructure deployment, Meta maintains high AI capital expenditures, and OpenAI's computing power demand keeps rising. The gap in AI computing power is like a monster that can never be satisfied.
As long as top cloud vendors keep placing orders, AI data centers continue expanding, and high-end GPUs remain the scarcest core asset, NVIDIA will not lose its AI leadership position due to a hearing storm.
Of course, this does not mean regulation is unimportant. Regulation has deep long-term impacts, but the capital market is extremely realistic: As long as there is no direct impact on orders and earnings in the short term, capital will prioritize trading fundamentals, viewing political risks only as long-term concerns.
That's the core reason NVIDIA was able to fight back strongly on June 8: Not that regulatory risk disappeared, but that the AI mainline is undergoing a recovery, chip stocks bounced from oversold levels, and capital deemed the previous panic sell-off as excessive.
The prior week saw a broad decline in the chip sector and low market sentiment. On June 8, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the rebound, and NVIDIA rose in tandem. This shows that capital never truly left the AI track; it was just temporarily scared off by short-term factors like interest rates, valuations, regulation, and geopolitical risks. Once no new major negative news emerges, capital immediately flows back to pick up bargains.
2. The Underlying Logic of This Rebound: AI Market Trends Enter Phase 2
NVIDIA's recent rise has never been supported by Jensen Huang's personal influence, but rather by the transition of the AI industry from Phase 1 to Phase 2.
The market logic of Phase 1 was simple: Whoever has GPUs can profit.
As long as a stock was linked to AI computing power, NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell could all see a rally. The market could boost share prices through themes and imagination.
But now the market logic has completely upgraded. The core question becomes: Who can truly keep GPUs running at full capacity and make AI factories operate efficiently?
AI is never just buying a few GPUs and putting them in a server room to make a profit. An AI data center is a super computing factory; GPU is the core engine, but no matter how powerful the engine, it needs a complete supporting infrastructure.
In Phase 2 of AI, the most bottleneck-prone and high-growth segments are all in infrastructure support:
High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), advanced packaging, optical communications, data center power, cooling systems, and network interconnection switches.
This is also why Jensen Huang has been frequently emphasizing "AI factories" and why NVIDIA is actively collaborating deeply with memory giants like SK Hynix. The next phase of AI competition is no longer just "who sells more GPUs," but who can lock in the complete AI supply chain and master the full set of computing infrastructure solutions.
As a result, NVIDIA's positioning has been completely upgraded: from a mere "chip seller" to an "AI infrastructure general contractor."
If you want to build an AI data center, train large models, set up a high-speed computing network, and match the software ecosystem, the market basically only recognizes NVIDIA. The completeness of the CUDA ecosystem, hardware support, and solutions makes it extremely difficult for customers to switch once they are onboard.
This is like the Apple ecosystem: once users get used to the whole system, the cost of switching is very high. NVIDIA's AI ecosystem is the same; customers never buy just one chip, but a whole tool chain, a whole computing system, and a whole industry ecosystem.
This is also the core reason the stock price can still rebound despite the regulatory headwinds: The market sees that NVIDIA's industry position has not weakened but continues to consolidate, becoming the absolute core of the AI industry.
3. Three Major Risks You Must Face: Don't Get Dizzy by the Rebound
The AI mainline is recovering and NVIDIA is fighting back strongly, but that doesn't mean you can blindly chase highs. The market is best at harvesting two types of retail investors: those who panic-sell on bad news, and those who go all-in on a high rebound. Understand the logic of the rise, but also see the hidden risks clearly.
Currently, NVIDIA has three major core risks that you must keep in mind:
1. Regulatory risk has never disappeared; it's just temporarily hidden
Jensen Huang's absence from the hearing does not mean Congress will stop monitoring or that regulation will not escalate. On the contrary, it may lead to stricter regulatory discussions in the future.
The logic of U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips is very clear: corporate profits are one thing, technology export security is another. NVIDIA is caught between global customer demand and U.S. policy regulation, and will face ongoing two-sided pressure in the long run. This is an ineradicable long-term concern.
2. Valuation is high, with very low margin for error
NVIDIA's fundamentals are extremely strong and its industry position is irreplaceable, but this is already a market consensus. When all investors are bullish on a company, the stock price has already priced in a lot of expectations in advance.
Future earnings that "meet expectations" are considered flat; "slightly beat expectations" may not be enough to support the stock price; only "explosive growth" can continue to drive the rally. As long as there is one instance of earnings guidance falling short, margin decline, or supply chain volatility, high valuations will face downward correction pressure.
An ordinary company scoring 80 points can gain market recognition, but when NVIDIA scores 98 points, the market will question the remaining 2-point gap. This is the cost of a high valuation for a leading company.
3. AI market continues to diverge; pure theme stocks gradually fade out
Phase 1 of AI was a broad rally: any stock with a connection to the theme could be speculated on. Phase 2 is a structural market: the market only recognizes "real orders, real revenue, real profit, real cash flow."
Concept stocks that only have stories but no earnings support will gradually be marginalized. What can continue to strengthen are the core links that bottleneck AI infrastructure.
Capital will also shift from simply chasing the GPU leader to spreading into niche sectors such as HBM memory, advanced packaging, optical communications, data center power, and cooling infrastructure.
4. Simple Observation Framework for Retail Investors: Four Tips to Judge AI Market Strength
Don't be swayed by news headlines. Master these four core indicators to objectively understand the AI mainline trend:
First, watch whether NVIDIA's trend can stabilize. Don't look at daily ups and downs; see whether it can continuously digest regulatory noise and hold its uptrend. If the rebound quickly reverses, it indicates weak market confidence; if it stabilizes in a range with a rising center of gravity, it's a true recovery.
Second, watch the correlation within the semiconductor sector. A rally solely driven by NVIDIA is unhealthy. It must be accompanied by a collective recovery in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, memory chips, AI networking chips, and advanced packaging sectors for it to be a genuine signal of capital returning to the AI mainline.
Third, watch cloud vendors' capital expenditures. As long as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta continue to pour money into expanding data centers and maintaining AI computing power investment, the AI mainline will not easily cool down. NVIDIA's strongest moat has never been retail investor faith, but real orders from top customers.
Fourth, watch whether substantive regulatory restrictions land. Verbal inquiries, hearings, and media criticism can all be digested by the market. But once substantive policies such as tighter export rules or restrictions on product sales appear, industry valuations and market logic must be reassessed.
5. Final Summary: AI Mainline Not Dead, but Chasing Highs Requires Discipline
Back to the core question: Jensen Huang refused the hearing, so why did NVIDIA still rise?
The answer is straightforward: The market currently believes more in real AI demand than in short-term regulatory noise; NVIDIA's AI infrastructure leadership is irreplaceable; chip stocks were oversold, leading to a recovery rally; and the infrastructure logic of AI Phase 2 continues to strengthen.
The real significance of the June 8 counterattack is not that "regulation doesn't matter," but that the AI mainline has powerfully restarted amid noise. Congress can create pressure, but as long as orders keep coming, demand remains strong, and data centers continue to expand, NVIDIA's core investment logic will not collapse.
But remember: A big rally is not a free pass; it's just a trend signal from the market.
NVIDIA is still the most core leader of the AI era and hard to replace in the short term. But it's no longer a stage for bargain buying. It is a super leader with high quality, high valuation, high attention, and high volatility. It is suitable for tracking trends, building positions in batches, and buying on dips. It is absolutely not suitable for going all-in on a single green candle.
Investing is not about chasing celebrity stocks. You can recognize a company's strength and admire its industry vision, but buying stocks always requires looking at price, risk, and position discipline.
Going forward, closely monitor three key signals: Can NVIDIA stabilize its trend? Can AI infrastructure segments rotate and follow? Will U.S. regulation implement substantive restrictions?
If all three lines improve together, the AI market trend can be expected to continue; once they weaken, do not stubbornly hold on, and do not use faith to fight against market trends.
